Dealing or Dueling With the United States? Explaining and Predicting Iranian Behavior During the Nuclear Crisis

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to understand and predict the Iranian behavior during the nuclear crisis. The model presented here provides a simple framework for structuring strategic interaction (game theory), a way to capture the beliefs of the actors prior to the crisis and deduce likely behavior from them (operational code analysis), and identify key factors (large-group identity and political survival) to monitor real time to determine preferences independent from observed behavior. The main finding of this analysis is that Iranians would like to negotiate a settlement but they have a very conflictual view of the United States. They fear that if they show willingness to negotiate, the United States could exploit it. This lack of trust and the relatively low cost of maintaining the current deadlock prevent the Iranians coming to the table.