Emerging and Disruptive Technologies in Russia’s War Against Ukraine

Abstract

At least three emerging and disruptive technologies (EDT) were used right from the opening phases of Russia’s War in Ukraine. Thanks to the operational experience, some of the hype and the unknowns surrounding those three categories of EDTs have now been reduced. Regarding hypersonic weapons, concerns and warnings about their destabilizing and disturbing impact were proven to be largely exaggerated. Yet, analysts should display caution in applying the lessons to future crises and conflict scenarios involving different adversaries, contingencies, and geostrategic circumstances. As for cyber threats, alarmism around them was also shown to be overblown. The evidence on the ground suggests that when both sides have moderate to advanced cyber defensive and offensive capabilities, the cyber playing field is quickly leveled. Finally, concerning counter-space activities, Russia attempted to harass and obstruct the services of third-party satellites used extensively by Ukraine. This signified an uptick mainly because counter-space techniques were used for the first time as part of an all-out war between two state adversaries. Still, Russia refrained from targeting those satellites themselves, possibly out of fear of escalation or reprisals. Instead, Russia’s counter-space activity picked on terrestrial elements of third-party satellites and took the shape of cyberattacks. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.