Modeling Turkey's future LNG supply security strategy

Abstract

Turkey was among those countries which decided to increase its natural gas consumption in the 19905, due to its relative low cost and lack of impact on the environment. However, a heavy dependence on imports, from Algeria, Qatar and Nigeria, respectively, creates a threat to energy security, both in terms of source and supply diversity. Accordingly, we follow an analytical approach to identify the accuracy of our assumption, considering the current economic, political and security risk. To this end, we formulate and solve a mixed integer programming model that determines the optimal sourcing strategy for Turkey's increasing LNG demand. This model demonstrates a number of alternative policy options for LNG supply. Furthermore, we consider that increasing the proportion of LNG in the overall gas supply will contribute to the aim of improving Turkey's level of energy security. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.