Achieving Turkey's INDC Target: Assessments of NCCAP and INDC Documents and Proposing Conceivable Policies

Abstract

In 2015, Turkey submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) before the Paris Conference of the Parties (COP 21), expressing its intention to decrease emissions level at a rate of 21% from business as usual. This emissions reduction target is important as it is the first one for Turkey. However, Turkey faces unemployment problems and needs to sustain its growth. In this study, an Environmentally Extended Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), based on 2012 Input-Output data, was created, emissions reduction potentials of the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) together with the INDC were calculated, and alternative policies to reduce emissions to the target level and to boost the economy were proposed separately. The study finds that both the preparation and implementation of the previous national documents are problematic, and that Turkey was not meticulous about implementation of the climate mitigation policies in the previous national documents. The study also finds that reaching the emissions target with the INDC policies seems impossible and more conceivable policies are needed, and recommends that the INDC target and document itself should be revised substantially.