Is It Possible to Have a Risk Scoring System that Provides Early Warning of the Poor Prognosis in COVID-19?

Abstract

Objective: In our study, we aimed to determine the factors associated with poor outcome by evaluating the data of possible/definite Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) cases coming to the emergency department in two centers and to establish a risk scoring system. Methods: This study has been designed as a retrospective study performed on COVID-19 cases. Patients’ sociodemographic data, complaints, vital signs, laboratory parameters, ser- vice/intensive care admission status, and the presence of death were analyzed. Results: A total of 436 patients were included in the study. We divided the cases into two groups in terms of poor outcome. The factors associated with poor outcome such as the presence of comorbid disease (p=0.001), being 50 years and older (p<0.001), symptoms of shortness of breath (p<0.001), saturation value <95% (p<0.001), neutrophil count >7×109 L–1 (p=0.006), lymphocyte count <1.1×109 L –1 (p=0.020), procalcitonin value ?0.015 ng/mL (p=0.001), D-dimer value ?500 mg/L (p=0.009) were found to be statistically significant. Conclusion: The scoring system we have created is considered to be a comprehensive, eas- ily applicable, and reliable method in determining the prognosis and the treatment strategy.