Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14365/960
Title: Multiple waves of COVID-19: a pathway model approach
Authors: Vasconcelos, Giovani L.
Pessoa, Nathan L.
Silva, Natan B.
Macedo, Antonio M. S.
Brum, Arthur A.
Ospina, Raydonal
Tirnakli, Ugur
Keywords: COVID-19
Epidemic wave
Growth model
Public health
Publisher: Springer
Abstract: A generalized pathway model, with time-dependent parameters, is applied to describe the mortality curves of the COVID-19 disease for several countries that exhibit multiple waves of infections. The pathway approach adopted here is formulated explicitly in time, in the sense that the model's growth rate for the number of deaths or infections is written as an explicit function of time, rather than in terms of the cumulative quantity itself. This allows for a direct fit of the model to daily data (new deaths or new cases) without the need of any integration. The model is applied to COVID-19 mortality curves for ten selected countries and found to be in very good agreement with the data for all cases considered. From the fitted theoretical curves for a given location, relevant epidemiological information can be extracted, such as the starting and peak dates for each successive wave. It is argued that obtaining reliable estimates for such characteristic points is important for studying the effectiveness of interventions and the possible negative impact of their relaxation, as it allows for a direct comparison of the time of adoption/relaxation of control measures with the peaks and troughs of the epidemic curve.
URI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-022-08179-8
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14365/960
ISSN: 0924-090X
1573-269X
Appears in Collections:PubMed İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / PubMed Indexed Publications Collection
Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection
WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collection

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