They Are Undermining Our Identity Effect of Demographic Shift on Negative Reactions Toward Refugees: the Mediator Role of Identity Undermining

Abstract

Demographic changes around the world via immigration provide a unique context for how high-powered (majority) groups respond to new circumstances. Previous studies indicated that impending demographic shift is detrimental to intergroup relations. In the present study, we present evidence of a novel mediator to explain the negative reactions of the majority group members to the impending demographic shift in a non-WEIRD (Türkiye) context. Accordingly, we conducted an experimental study (N = 274) in which participants showed a current demographic structure, future Turkish majority, and future Turkish minority via ostensibly a real newspaper article to examine the mediation role of identity undermining between impending demographic shift and outgroup tolerance and collective angst. Results of the mediation analysis showed that the significant indirect effect of demographic shift on shift on collective angst, but not on outgroup tolerance, via identity undermining emerged for the difference between the participants presented the current distribution of Türkiye and participants presented a future where Turkish citizens would no longer constitute a majority. Thus, we demonstrate that an experimentally manipulated impending demographic shift threatens the way of life (identity undermining) among majority group members, subsequently increasing their collective angst. This finding underscores the importance of identity undermining as a potential danger for majority-minority relations and highlights the need for strategies to mitigate these tensions. © The Author(s) 2025.