Navigating the Storm: the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on EU's Quest for Strategic Autonomy

Abstract

This article investigates how the Russia-Ukraine war has reshaped the European Union's defence priorities and its pursuit of strategic autonomy. Using advanced text analytics and machine learning methods of over 26,000 European External Action Service (EEAS) documents, we examine shifts in topic prevalence across the Strategic Compass while considering broader geopolitical dynamics, including Brexit, China's positioning and US-NATO relations. Using EEAS documents spanning from one year before to two years after the Russian invasion, we employ a two-stage topic modelling approach. First, we classify EEAS documents under the Strategic Compass dimensions through majority voting, utilising text embedding and supervised learning models, followed by detailed mapping of documents to specific subtopics derived from the Strategic Compass framework by topic modelling. Our findings reveal a significant reorientation from a pre-war emphasis on long-term capability development towards an increased focus on immediate crisis response and strengthened international partnerships postinvasion. While the EU demonstrated enhanced operational capacity and partnership-building, persistent challenges remain in achieving comprehensive strategic autonomy and becoming an international actor. These results suggest that external crises can accelerate strategic autonomy in discourse. However, achieving genuine independence requires more effective crisis response, long-term capability development, and strong partnership management.