How Realistic Are Coal Phase-Out Timeline Targets for Turkey?

Abstract

Coal phase-out is considered to be critical to the success of energy transition for all countries. Yet, recent assessments indicate that energy security aspects may affect phase-out plans and/or commitments and jeopardize energy transition ambitions. This study aims to question to what extent coal phase-out targets for Turkiye are realistic. Although previous research has mainly focused on direct emission reduction targets and just transition aspects, we include a down-to-earth discussion of the potential challenges before coal phase-out. The interaction between phasing-out coal power generation and energy security aspects is also analyzed. To understand the coal phase-out timeline targets, its limitations, and constraints within the framework of future power projections, a supply-demand model with different scenarios was developed. In addition, energy storage was also discussed as an option. Analysis revealed that energy storage, in the short- and medium-term, may not be the panacea, as it may not be deployed in the scale to substitute the energy security that coal provided. Moreover, our findings indicate that phasing-out is not as simple as assumed. A target timeline is certainly not realistic considering the energy security aspect and challenges. On the other hand, economically nonviable and technically nonavailable coal-fired power plants in the power system may retire gradually (as a natural phase-out process). This may occur even without waiting for the target timeline, if there would ever officially be one.