The Granger-Causality Between Health Care Expenditure and Output: a Panel Data Approach

Abstract

This study investigates the Granger-causality relationship between real per capita GDP and real per capita health care expenditure by employing a large macro panel data set with a VAR representation. The findings verify that the dominant type of Granger-causality is bidirectional. In instances that we found one-way causality, the pattern is not homogenous: Our analyses show that one-way causality generally runs from income to health in low- and middle-income countries whereas the reverse holds for high-income countries. Accordingly, care must be paid in defining the dependent and independent variables when specifying the determinants of health care expenditure.