Combined Forecasts in Portfolio Optimization: a Generalized Approach

Abstract

In this paper a general mathematical model for portfolio selection problem is proposed. By considering a forecasting performance according to the distributional properties of residuals, we formulate an extended mean-variance-skewness model with 11 objective functions. Returns and return errors for each asset obtained using different forecasting techniques, are combined in optimal proportions so as to minimize the mean absolute forecast error. These proportions are then used in constructing six criteria related to the mean, variance and skewness of return forecasts of assets in the future and forecasting errors of returns of assets in the past. The obtained multi-objective model is scalarized by using the conic scalarization method which guarantees to find all non-dominated solutions by considering investor preferences in non-convex multi-objective problems. The obtained scalar problem is solved by utilizing F-MSG algorithm. The performance of the proposed approach is tested on a real case problem generated on the data derived from Istanbul Stock Exchange. The comparison is conducted with respect to different levels of investor preferences over return, variance, and skewness and obtained results are summarized. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.